To exchange or not

In a TV game show here in Blighty, Deal or No Deal a contestant [1 of 22] had managed to open 20 boxes with sums of money ranging from 1 penny to £250,000, and was left with 2 boxes one with £250,000 the other with £75,000. An unseen banker offered he £125,000 to end the game. The minimum she would walk off with was £75,000, but the lure of £250,000 led her to NO DEAL. At that the banker offered her the choice of exchanging her box for the other un-opened box. What is the smart thing to do? And why?

[Jesse Joe]

I would take the bankers offer of $125,000 and run with the money.

[Cathy]

If there were two boxes, and she already opened the one with 75,000, I wouldn't waste any time exchanging the box!

[Auburn Annie]

Ditto - take the guaranteed 125,000 offered by the banker. I guess it depends on how badly you'd feel, "losing" a potential additional 125,000 (to make 250,000) versus how good you'd feel with 50,000 more than the 75,000 case. In any event the contestant came to the show with O so it's all gravy. If the contestant switches boxes, turning down the 125,000 and ends up with 75,000 he/she will feel dumb. Greed, though, usually wins out in these cases (no pun intended.)

So what did she choose?

[charlene]

I'd take the concrete deal...take the money offered....

There's a U.S. version on over here - Howie Mandel (a canadian) is the host. I am not a fan of those sorts of shows (lets make a deal etc.) The couple of instances I have seen it when Lisa is watching it makes me cringe when greediness takes over some people. I guess not being a gambling sort makes me feel that way. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush sort of thing I suppose....

This is a version of the Monte Hall paradox. At the beginning of the show the contestants randomly select the boxes. There are 21 chances of picking a box without £250,000 and 1 chance of picking the £250,000 box. So the chance of the contestant having the big one are slight. Although somebody must have it. The perceived wisdom is to change. Type "Monte Hall" into a search engine to get a fuller explanation.

The contestant did not exchange and walked off with £75,000. No small amount, but she could have trotted off with £125,000. Greed reared it's ugly head.

[charlene]

Originally posted by <Dickie Ticker>:
Greed reared it's ugly head.

yep-that's for sure.....human nature being what it is I suppose it's only 'human' that it would. I don't like that the whole premise panders to the lowest qualities we as humans can have....and as humans there are no shortages of low qualities that can be exploited for tv.Even if those qualities exist in real life all around us.....But the reality shows are rife with them....it's sad really.
But hot damn it makes for good TV.....and good TV makes BIG money.....and on it goes...
sheesh....

[Auburn Annie]

Well I do gamble - small amounts - from time to time but never more than I can afford to lose, and always with "take the money and run" in mind. When I'm up I cash out, put the winnings aside, and play with my starting cash again. If that wins, I quit. If I lose some or all of it, I've still got what I set aside from my first run of luck. We're taking our mom to the local casino in 3 weeks for her birthday. Now THERE'S a winner, at Joker Poker slots. Her biggest win was $3200 with 5 sevens.

Once in a blue moon I'll take a flyer on the Mega Millions (multistate lotto - current jackpot $220 million US) but mostly play $1, $2, and occasionally $5 scratch-off instant tickets. I do fairly well on those; yesterday's $2 Bingo Doubler won me $20.

I've seen the show, and outside of the lengthy chit chats, I find it rather fascinating. It's pure luck, much like the lottery, or any form of gambling.

Greed is an interesting human trait. It has propelled some to riches and others to ruins. The ones who end up at peace with the mirror are the winners.

Me ? I would have rejected the 125,000 offer, and gone for the gold without swapping cases. It all depends on your lot in life at that moment.

RMD

[brink-]

I'm with Reminder her. I would be satisfied with 75,000 because it is more than I started with but the possiblity of 250,000 would have been grand. I look at it that I hadn't lost anything, I gained 75,000.

[johnfowles]

Originally posted by <Dickie Ticker>:
What is the smart thing to do? And why?

Having watched the original US/Harvey Mandel version a few times (in its first week it was on every evening so it was hard to avoid it) it was patently obvious that if a contestant had an offer of the order of $125,000 and declined the deal it was almost certain that he/she would lose out.
Pretty mindless entertainment in fact.
But typical of the fare we are offerred nowadays.
Last year we actually had to suffer two casinos for the sake of enjoying some Lightfoot music.
At the first there was no slots that accepted coins but the second had quarter slots. I set myself a limit of losing $5.00 and soon had a choice of two vacant machines. Although I ended up somewhat lucky and about $10.00 better off
I was not best pleased when an opportunist lady settled into the other vacant seat next to me and within about 5 minutes was receiving a cheque for $2500.
John Fowles
I could have done with that right then as I was at the time still serious about spending about that sum on a new Ferrari:-

Acer Ferrari 4005WLMi AMD Turion 64 ML-37 (1mb L2 Cache, 2.0GHz)
(In the end I settled for a vastly cheaper (£76.00 on http://www.ebay.co.uk) and
more satisfying used HP Jornada 820 "handheld/micro notebook
<a href="http://h1.ripway.com/johnsjornadasite/" target="_blank">
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click the above picture for more details if you are interested

[ April 12, 2006, 13:44: Message edited by: johnfowles ]

[SilverHeels]

I've seen 'Deal or No Deal' a few times and I saw the show Dickie mentioned. The contestant walked off with £75.000. Not bad. I'm trying to figure who I can blackmail to get me on the show. :D

[charlene]

That's a nice laptop John and a great price.
I'm hoping to get one for Lisa for college in September....we're looking around. I'll let you know what we eventually get. Some courses require the student lease a laptop already loaded with the programmes they will use. This is 'serious' coin over and above the tuition! Thankfully Lisa doesn't require a leased one.

[Auburn Annie]

"Last year we actually had to suffer two casinos for the sake of enjoying some Lightfoot music.
At the first there was no slots that accepted coins but the second had quarter slots. I set myself a limit of losing $5.00 and soon had a choice of two vacant machines. Although I ended up somewhat lucky and about $10.00 better off
I was not best pleased when an opportunist lady settled into the other vacant seat next to me and within about 5 minutes was receiving a cheque for $2500."

LOL - that's happened to me, John. Two identical looking machines sitting side-by-side can have different payouts but mostly it's just a matter of timing, since payouts are determined by a random-number generator. The only slot game where you may have an edge, however slight, is video poker because that does involve some skill. I can usually tell within three or four plays whether or not I'm in sync with a machine; if not I move on.

[charlene]

oh Annie - please tell me how you know....a new casino opened up about 15 minutes from me....just slot machines! that's all i know how to play......a nice windfall would be mighty welcome!

I too go with a limit and play with my winnings....if I happen to lose the start amount it's condsidered a night's entertainment....not a 'great' nights' entertainment mind you but a bit of fun. I don't go often - a couple of times a year at most....they still allow smoking in the casinos here and I can only take so much before I have to leave.
It's quite fascinating to watch the other players....that's entertainment enough some nights! Wow - some people can go through an awful lot of money playing the slots!

[Auburn Annie]

Well, Char, there's a rhythm to it (for me, anyway.) If I haven't had more hits than misses in about 30 seconds' play, I switch machines. Some nights you're just firing on all cylinders, so to speak. Did that last year at Turning Stone where I turned my $50 stake to $150 in about 2 minutes, and cashed out when I dropped to $135. It's too tempting to keep playing, thinking you're going to hit "the big one" with the next push of a button or pull of a lever - that's how they get you. You know, "that was close" or "just missed" a flush or whatever, when in reality you were nowhere near it. I'll pocket my winnings and maybe try another machine with the stake, which may or may not win. If not, I'm still ahead.

[Jesse Joe]

15xtok

[Sheryl]

I love the new show Deal or No Deal. My husband and Howie went to the same school. When we had to take the dog to the vet (she's fine now, the kids had given her chocolate), they had flat screens in EVERY examining room (I knew a HIGH bill would accompany THAT visit!!) and we were lucky to see Deal or No Deal while we waited. It helped take the stress off of worrying about our beagle, Bonnie. It took about a week of special food and T.L.C. to get her back to normal. No more chocolate for her!!

[Auburn Annie]

On their website ( http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/ ) there's a place to play online. And during live broadcasts (not reruns) you can play for real, and for $10,000 US, by either text messaging (for a fee) which special case from 1-6 has the 10K, or entering online for free. Everyone who picks the correct case is entered into a live drawing and the winner announced at the end of each show. We had not one but two winners from my area in the first few weeks the show was on, one actually from Auburn and one from a few miles north in Oswego. I enter online, when I remember the show is on. You don't have to be watching but you do have to answer the phone if they call you, otherwise they draw again and you're outta luck.

Originally posted by charlene:
It's quite fascinating to watch the other players....that's entertainment enough some nights! Wow - some people can go through an awful lot of money playing the slots!

Charlene,
A few years ago my wife and I saw GL in a casino, a great show. The place was full of slot machines, every one appeared to be in use, the players had a bucket of quarters alongside them. Talking to a guy in the bar before the show, he told me that some of the players, in order not to leave the machine for a 'comfort break' and risk losing the machine, wear diapers, or nappies as we call them. Please tell me this is NOT TRUE.

[Auburn Annie]

True but only with some compulsive gamblers who are truly and deeply addicted - that doesn't include some elderly folks or others with medical problems that include incontinence, who also gamble for fun.

[Sheryl]

OK, believe this -- a friend of mine said her husband had a sick obsession in that he liked to wear diapers during "intimate time" and he wanted to play baby and for her to be mama. She got fed up when that's ALL he wanted to do. She looked up this sickness online and found out there were chat groups for men who LIKED this stuff!!

[charlene]

oh geeze ../...now the next time I'm at a casino I'll have THAT image in my mind and questioning which ones have nappies on!
lolol
I know about the elderly and their probs - I'm not checking out the old guys butts...lol
oh dear......
maybe I can place side bets with people about who is wearing them!

[Borderstone]

I actually thought Howie's idea sounded kinda lame when he talked about it on The Tonight Show a few months ago.

It just sounded like an absurd idea to me and I precluded it would fail and decided not to tune in.

Well,one night there was absolutley nothing on TV (that I liked) and it became the only option. I tuned in and thought,"Well,so far I like the women opening the cases!" LOL! :D

After awhile I did get into it. I don't tune in regularly but it's not bad I guess. If I did get on,I'd just take the first offer over $100,000 and cut out!

From there,I could make investments and really build my financial status and credit on my own. Which in the long run may not be as exciting but is more deeply satisfying.

[Auburn Annie]

Originally posted by Sheryl:
OK, believe this -- a friend of mine said her husband had a sick obsession in that he liked to wear diapers during "intimate time" and he wanted to play baby and for her to be mama. She got fed up when that's ALL he wanted to do. She looked up this sickness online and found out there were chat groups for men who LIKED this stuff!!

There truly is someone for everyone and a kink for every taste; the internet makes it SO much easier for them to find each other.